Don't Quit Your Day Job…

Here at DQYDJ, we retrieved Standard & Poor’s AAA ‘Domestic Ratings’ for sovereign debt on the morning of 8/11/2011.  Here’s  the list of ‘AAA’ rated sovereign debt issuers you have already seen at our site: Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Guernsey, Hong Kong, Isle of Man, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.  We told you the other day that the only thing that really matters is the yield – the price at which a sovereign can issue debt.  Let’s dig into that further!

It’s been two full market days since S&P cut the debt rating of the United States one notch from AAA to AA+… and for one day at least, it was looking like S&P had the stock market by the nose.  Two days later we can finally take a look back at what happened since we’ve had two trading days, a rest in between, a Federal Reserve statement, and a speech from the President.  To wit: the S&P 500 Index closed at 1199.38 on Friday, 1119.46 on Monday and 1172.53 on Tuesday.

Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Guernsey, Hong Kong, Isle of Man, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.  What do all of these sovereign states have in common?  As of yesterday, Standard and Poor’s rates their debt as a lower default risk than debt from the United States.

(Updated with information on Facebook’s potential IPO in April 2012). Remember back just a few short years ago when the ultimate goal of a start-up in Silicon Valley was to either get bought out (by a public company) or to go public? The first internet bubble saw companies like Amazon and eBay make their debuts, but it also relegated other companies to the history books: iWon.com, pets.com, and Startups.com. As a result of new regulations and laws (a major piece being the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002), an Initial Public Offering may not be the glamorous exit strategy it once was. A perfect example most of us have experience with? Facebook.

My friend sent me an article the other day which really summarized my thoughts succinctly – he sent me this piece from Evan Newmark writing at the Wall Street Journal. If you haven’t noticed the crazy action in the stock market in recent weeks and days, let me be the bearer of bad news: the major US indicators are down from their yearly peaks. You’ve probably lost some money on paper, even. Between oil in the Gulf, the Greece Drama, and even North Korea, there is a lot to be worried about. Here’s the thing – these are all known unknowns, and generally priced into the stock market already.

One of the more interesting risks you’ll face in investing in stocks (or bonds, or any security of a single company for that matter) is headline risk. Headline risk, as you may know, is the effect that news can have on a company (or sector, etc.). Often times, negative news which is only loosely related to a company can hurt it negatively. Of recent note: Tiger Woods’s “transgressions” on the companies that pay him to sponsor their products.

What should you make about the Mark Hulbert article claiming that top market timing newsletters are bullish heading into the new year? After a 27.76% increase in the value of the S&P 500 (not counting dividends) in 2009, how much further does the stock market yet have to run? And what does a bullish consensus among market timers mean, exactly?

Yesterday saw a 1.45% rise in the value of the S&P 500 Index and a 1.33% rise in the Dow. The closely followed indexes have been strong in November, rising 5.53% and 5.09% respectively. However, they are being boosted by a weird trend – the outperformance of large cap stocks.

Or is it? The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.03% yesterday, on the surface a nice gain for the index. Rises such as that give confidence to investors that the worst is over and it’s time to work back into stocks. Let me briefly present the other side of that argument.

Who is your favorite investor? Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch? Do you wish you had their insights? What if you could link your brokerage account to theirs? That exact concept is brought up in an article from the New York Times hosted on Yahoo! Finance: for a fee, your brokerage account can mirror that of an expert investor.