“Oooh-yeah just like this
Come on little miss and do the twist” – Chubby Checker, The Twist
I thought the quote was pretty clever, but you could also attach one of a couple of subtitles on this post: “Why Thomas Sargent Deserves Half the Nobel Prize” or, if you like classic entertainment, “A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Dance”! Let’s stick with Thomas Sargent, who just won the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work in the field of “Rational Expectations”. “Rational Expectations” in Economics, as you might guess, refers to the changing expectations of the market (investors, citizens, whomever) to policies that will affect them. Basically, you cannot assume that the reaction to a new policy will have the desired effect.
Is Operation Twist a Failure? The Fed’s Two Left Feet.
On October - 12 - 2011
Financial Bounce
On October - 14 - 2009
Of note: an interesting report from Cumberland Advisors. An ETF that tracks the KBW Banking Index is up a whopping 145% since March 9. It consists mainly of bigger, national banks. With their ‘bigness’ also comes ‘too big to fail-ness’ and political connections. Smaller, regional banks are a totally different story.
Read the rest of this entry »Use Irrationality Against Yourself!
On July - 23 - 2009
Behavioral finance and economics have recently exploded onto the national scene. These two behavioral topics deal with the idea of ‘rationality’; they are concerned with the rationality of the decisions of members of a population and the limits to an individual’s rationality. Studies show that humans have many irrational tendencies which can be shown experimentally.
Read the rest of this entry »Break in Case of Emergency
On June - 21 - 2009
A commonly heard refrain in the personal finance world is ‘Keep 3 months of living expenses in an emergency fund!’ If fact, this is heard so much it’s almost become a mantra for people taking control of their finances for the first time. Where does this ‘3′ come from? Why do you keep it? All this and more will be answered, read on…
Read the rest of this entry »Hubris, Greed and Excess
On June - 14 - 2009
“Bennet Sedacca announced to the world at 10:15 on the morning of March 5, 2008, that venerable Bear Sterns & Co., the nation’s fifth-largest investment bank was in trouble, big trouble.” The first paragraph opens with a bang. Ten days after Sedacca made that call, he was proven right. Bear Sterns was no more. William D. Cohan’s House of Cards: A Tale of Hubris and Wretched Excess on Wall Street, explains how Bear Sterns got there.
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